Oklahoma City Thunder
8-5
Sacramento Kings
1-11
Win Probability
The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Sacramento to face a Kings team searching for answers after a difficult start to the season. AccuScore's simulation favors Oklahoma City decisively, projecting a 13-point margin that hinges on the Thunder's ability to control pace and transition scoring. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a 68% chance of exceeding 26.5 points, while De'Aaron Fox projects to stay under 24.5 points in 54% of outcomes—a gap that captures the fundamental mismatch the model sees. In games where the simulation has leaned this strongly toward the away side, the favored team won 75% of the time across more than four thousand prior matchups. Sacramento would need to generate turnovers and limit second-chance opportunities to upset this projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SAC | EV | OKC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +373 | +0.1% | -490 | -2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +381 | +1.0% | -448 | -1.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma City Thunder 79% to beat Sacramento Kings (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma City Thunder the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sacramento Kings a 21% chance of beating Oklahoma City Thunder, against 79% for Oklahoma City Thunder. Sacramento Kings are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Oklahoma City Thunder (8-4 so far) project to finish 53.3–28.7 and make the playoffs in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Sacramento Kings (1-10 so far) project to finish 20.2–61.8 and make the playoffs in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 53.3–28.7 | 31% | 85% |
| Sacramento Kings | 20.2–61.8 | <1% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oklahoma City Thunder have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Sacramento Kings have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 57 times since 2010: Oklahoma City Thunder 36, Sacramento Kings 21. The last meeting, on Nov 19, 2025, finished Sacramento Kings 99, Oklahoma City Thunder 113.
Oklahoma City Thunder are 685-254 as favourite and 161-273 as underdog, and 379-336 on the road (53% of 715 games, 2010–2026).
Sacramento Kings are 229-166 as favourite and 247-590 as underdog, and 287-363 at home (44% of 650 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | OKC | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 685-254 | 229-166 |
| As underdog | 161-273 | 247-590 |
| At home | 497-221 | 287-363 |
| On the road | 379-336 | 226-421 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →