Portland
2-1
Hawai'i
3-0
Win Probability
Hawai'i hosts Portland in a matchup shaped decisively in the home side's favour. AccuScore's simulation leans emphatically toward the Rainbow Warriors, who project to control pace and shot selection through the second half. Portland will need efficient three-point shooting and ball security to stay within striking distance; the visitor's margin hinges on whether the Ducks can limit turnovers while staying ahead of the arc. In similar spots where the model has favored one side this strongly, that side won 81 percent of its games across 1,331 graded matchups. Portland's path to an upset runs through a shooting night well above its season norm and Hawai'i failing to execute in transition.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | HAW | EV | PORT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -325 | -0.8% | +260 | -5.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -315 | -0.4% | +250 | -6.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -300 | +0.2% | +240 | -8.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -320 | -0.6% | +250 | -6.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -320 | -0.6% | +260 | -5.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | +1.4% | -105 | -6.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | +0.4% | -110 | -4.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | +1.4% | -105 | -6.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157 | -110 | +1.5% | -110 | -5.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | +1.4% | -105 | -6.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 75.3%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Hawai'i 75% to beat Portland (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Hawai'i the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Hawai'i a 75% chance of beating Portland, against 25% for Portland. Hawai'i are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Portland (0-1 so far) project to finish 8.7–20.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Hawai'i (1-0 so far) project to finish 17.8–10.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Portland and Hawai'i come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.