#6Michigan State
2-0
#2Duke
2-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Michigan State travels to face undefeated Duke in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Duke's depth in scoring will be tested by Michigan State's discipline, but the Blue Devils' ability to generate points across multiple options gives them a substantial advantage. On games shaped like this one, the favored side has won 81% of the time. Michigan State would need to limit Duke's secondary scorers while sustaining efficient offensive execution throughout to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | DUKE | EV | MSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -278 | -1.5% | +225 | -3.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -275 | -1.3% | +225 | -3.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -741 | -9.5% | +168 | -11.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 149.5 | -417 | -19.9% | -332 | -16.6% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Duke 71% to beat Michigan State (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Duke the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Duke a 71% chance of beating Michigan State, against 29% for Michigan State. Duke are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Michigan State (2-0 so far) project to finish 23.6–8.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Duke (2-0 so far) project to finish 27.9–4.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 99% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 23.6–8.4 | 15% | 93% |
| Duke | 27.9–4.1 | 69% | 99% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Michigan State and Duke come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Michigan State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Duke have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2017: Michigan State 1, Duke 3. The last meeting, on Dec 6, 2025, finished Duke 66, Michigan State 60.