#3Illinois
2-0
#19Texas Tech
2-0
Win Probability
Illinois travels to face Texas Tech in a matchup of undefeated teams where the simulation clearly favors the visiting Illini. The deciding factor is perimeter shooting: Illinois projects to win a game decided by three points, and that margin hinges on whether Texas Tech can match the visitors' output from distance. Across similar statistical shapes in eight other games, the favored side won six times. For Texas Tech to pull the upset at home, the Red Raiders would need to neutralize Illinois's outside scoring and tighten a game the model expects to stay close.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TTU | EV | ILL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +114 | -4.8% | -135 | +0.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +120 | -3.6% | -140 | -0.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +115 | -4.6% | -135 | +0.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -110 | -9.7% | -166 | -3.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -8.5% | -110 | +3.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 162 | -110 | -9.5% | -110 | +5.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -8.5% | -110 | +3.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -8.5% | -110 | +3.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 161.5 | -197 | -17.2% | -147 | -2.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 57.8%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Illinois 58% to beat Texas Tech (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Illinois the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas Tech a 42% chance of beating Illinois, against 58% for Illinois. Texas Tech are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Illinois (2-0 so far) project to finish 26.3–5.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 99% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas Tech (2-0 so far) project to finish 19.0–10.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 74% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 26.3–5.7 | 36% | 99% |
| Texas Tech | 19.0–10.0 | 8% | 74% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Illinois and Texas Tech come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Illinois have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Texas Tech have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Illinois 1, Texas Tech 0. The last meeting, on Nov 10, 2025, finished Texas Tech 77, Illinois 81.