#1Florida
2-0
Florida State
2-0
Win Probability
Florida travels to face Florida State in a matchup of undefeated teams, with AccuScore's simulation decisively favoring the Gators. The model projects a high-scoring affair driven by Florida's offensive firepower, though the outcome hinges on whether Florida State can generate enough perimeter scoring to keep pace. In 1,331 games where the simulation leaned this strongly toward one side, the favored team won 81% of the time. For Florida State to pull the upset at home, the Seminoles would need to significantly outperform their projection and force Florida into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | FSU | EV | FLA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +425 | +12.7% | -575 | -5.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +450 | +15.7% | -630 | -5.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | +400 | +9.7% | -550 | -5.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +380 | +7.4% | -520 | -4.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | +335 | +2.0% | -480 | -4.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 165.5 | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 164.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 164.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 164.5 | -115 | -3.5% | -105 | -0.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 165 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.8% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida 76% to beat Florida State (24%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida State a 24% chance of beating Florida, against 76% for Florida. Florida State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Florida (2-0 so far) project to finish 24.4–5.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 96% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida State (2-0 so far) project to finish 20.0–12.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 51% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 24.4–5.6 | 37% | 96% |
| Florida State | 20.0–12.0 | 3% | 51% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Florida and Florida State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Florida have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Florida State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2017: Florida 3, Florida State 2. The last meeting, on Nov 10, 2025, finished Florida State 76, Florida 78.