Wright State
2-0
Toledo
1-2
Win Probability
Wright State travels to Toledo in a coin-flip matchup between a pair of teams separated by record but not by model conviction. The simulation barely favors the visiting Raiders, who will need to contain Toledo's scoring threats while generating enough of their own; in similar spots across eight past games, the favored side won 75% of the time. For Wright State to pull away, it will need strong perimeter play and efficient shot selection. Toledo can steal this at home if its offense can overcome any early cold spells and keep the pace controlled.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TOL | EV | WRST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +105 | -0.6% | -126 | -3.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +100 | -1.8% | -120 | -2.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -332 | -18.6% | -152 | -7.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 158.5 | -115 | -0.9% | -105 | -3.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Wright State 52% to beat Toledo (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wright State the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toledo a 48% chance of beating Wright State, against 52% for Wright State. Toledo are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Wright State (2-0 so far) project to finish 21.7–8.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 37% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Toledo (1-2 so far) project to finish 18.2–12.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wright State | 21.7–8.3 | 46% | 37% |
| Toledo | 18.2–12.8 | 18% | 17% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Wright State and Toledo come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Wright State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Toledo have won 1 of their last 3 (W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2017: Wright State 2, Toledo 1. The last meeting, on Nov 10, 2025, finished Toledo 81, Wright State 71.