NCAAB
Youngstown State
1-1
Central Michigan
2-0
Win Probability
Youngstown State travels to face Central Michigan in a matchup that leans slightly toward the home side. The simulation centers on perimeter shooting: Central Michigan's Marcus Mariota projects a 58% chance to exceed 3.2 three-pointers, while Youngstown State's Nate Santos sits at 52% to clear 4.1 assists. On games shaped this way historically, the favored side won 57% of the time. Whether the Penguins can steal this one depends largely on whether Santos can orchestrate enough offensive rhythm to keep pace with Central Michigan's outside production.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CMU | EV | YSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -138 | -2.1% | +115 | -2.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -145 | -3.0% | +120 | -1.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -471 | -16.3% | -115 | -8.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -5.9% | -105 | +1.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -115 | -3.5% | -105 | -0.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Central Michigan 56% to beat Youngstown State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Central Michigan the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Central Michigan a 56% chance of beating Youngstown State, against 44% for Youngstown State. Central Michigan are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Youngstown State (1-1 so far) project to finish 16.4–12.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Central Michigan (1-0 so far) project to finish 10.7–18.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Youngstown State | 16.4–12.6 | 15% | 12% |
| Central Michigan | 10.7–18.3 | 2% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Youngstown State and Central Michigan come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Youngstown State have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
Central Michigan have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2018: Youngstown State 0, Central Michigan 1. The last meeting, on Dec 4, 2018, finished Central Michigan 100, Youngstown State 94.