NCAAB
UT Martin
0-2
Arkansas State
1-1
Win Probability
Moneyline
UTM
19.7% win prob
Moneyline
ARST
80.3% win prob
UT Martin travels to face Arkansas State in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the home Red Wolves. The model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on perimeter shooting: UT Martin's three-point volume will likely determine whether the Skyhawks can keep pace. On games where it has leaned this decisively toward the home side, AccuScore's picks have won 92% of the time across 781 graded contests. UT Martin would need to upset that historical pattern and execute at the three-point line to pull off the road upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas State 80% to beat UT Martin (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas State the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arkansas State a 80% chance of beating UT Martin, against 20% for UT Martin. Arkansas State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UT Martin (0-2 so far) project to finish 11.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arkansas State (1-1 so far) project to finish 18.9–10.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UT Martin | 11.6–14.4 | 16% | 13% |
| Arkansas State | 18.9–10.1 | 17% | 15% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UT Martin and Arkansas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UT Martin have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Arkansas State have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).