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← Today's Edges
NCAAB•Wed, Nov 11 • 1:00 AM
YALE

Yale

1-1

VS
BAY

Baylor

2-0

Win Probability

Moneyline

YALE

+147

4.3% win prob

EV -44.7%

Polymarket

Moneyline

BAY

-10969

95.7% win prob

EV -1.7%

Polymarket

Analysis

Yale travels to face Baylor in a matchup heavily favoring the home side. AccuScore's simulation gives Baylor decisive advantage, and similar games in the model's record produced wins for the favored team in 97 of 100 instances. The game turns on whether Yale can generate enough scoring; Baylor's offense is projected well ahead of Yale's defensive capabilities, with the Bears' scoring outlook substantially exceeding the Bulldogs' output. For Yale to pull the upset, their scoring would need to reach well above its simulation projection while Baylor falls short of its own—a combination that happens rarely in games shaped this way.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Point SpreadBAY -18.5
11.5-19.75-51
YALE Cover
48.8%
no odds at this line
BAY Cover
51.2%
no odds at this line
Total (Over/Under)O/U 158
117.5160.25203
Over Cover
47.7%
no odds at this line
Under Cover
49.8%
no odds at this line
Push 2.5% — stake returned if it lands exactly on the total

1st Half

AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.

Leads at the half

8.9%YALE
Tied 2.0%
BAY89.1%
1st Half SpreadBAY -11
9-11-31
YALE Cover
47.5%
no odds at this line
BAY Cover
47.6%
no odds at this line
Push 4.8% — stake returned if it lands exactly on the line
1st Half Total (Over/Under)1H O/U 75.5
567696
Over Cover
50.3%
no odds at this line
Under Cover
49.7%
no odds at this line

Player Props

BAY YALE
Sort:

EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.

Odds Comparison

Moneyline

BookBAYEVYALEEV
Polymarket ↗-10969-1.7%+147-44.7%

Where to Bet

DraftKingsBet →FanDuelBet →BetMGMBet →KalshiBet →PolymarketBet →

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NCAAB

Yale vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Tue, Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 PM ET

AccuScore's simulation makes Baylor 96% to beat Yale (4%).

Projection updated Nov 9, 4:46 PM ET

Who will win Yale vs Baylor?

AccuScore's simulation makes Baylor the more likely winner at 96%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Baylor beat Yale?

AccuScore's simulation gives Baylor a 96% chance of beating Yale, against 4% for Yale. Baylor are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Every Yale vs Baylor meeting →Yale predictions & record →Baylor predictions & record →

Season outlook

Yale (1-1 so far) project to finish 16.7–9.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 41% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

Baylor (2-0 so far) project to finish 18.0–11.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 66% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

TeamProjected recordConference titlePlayoffs
Yale16.7–9.346%41%
Baylor18.0–11.05%66%

From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Yale and Baylor come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

YaleLW
  • Nov 6at UCFL 75–87
  • Nov 2vs HowardW 72–62

Yale have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).

BaylorWW
  • Nov 6vs Arkansas-Pine BluffW 109–53
  • Nov 2vs Northwestern StateW 87–65

Baylor have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).