NCAAB
Green Bay
2-1
Northern Iowa
1-1
Win Probability
Northern Iowa hosts Green Bay in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. The deciding factor is tempo: if Green Bay can sustain its offensive pace and limit possessions, it stays close, but Northern Iowa's ability to control the game on its home court makes that difficult for a travelling opponent. Across eight similar games where the model favoured one side this strongly, the favoured team won 68% of the time. Green Bay's offensive load falls to its perimeter players, who would need to shoot above their projections to flip this outcome. For the Panthers to pull the upset, they would need Northern Iowa to cool considerably from its home-court advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UNI | EV | GB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -680 | -11.4% | -141 | -22.1% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Northern Iowa 67% to beat Green Bay (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Northern Iowa the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northern Iowa a 67% chance of beating Green Bay, against 33% for Green Bay. Northern Iowa are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Green Bay (1-1 so far) project to finish 16.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Northern Iowa (0-1 so far) project to finish 15.3–14.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | 16.2–13.8 | 13% | 11% |
| Northern Iowa | 15.3–14.7 | 12% | 15% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Green Bay and Northern Iowa come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Green Bay have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).