NCAAB
Northern Kentucky
2-1
Saint Louis
2-0
Win Probability
Northern Kentucky travels to Saint Louis for a matchup between two unbeaten sides, though the simulation decisively favours the hosting Billikens. Saint Louis has shown more in early going, and the model projects this as a comfortable win if the game follows its expected shape. Northern Kentucky's path to an upset runs through ball movement and three-point shooting—the kind of offensive efficiency that would need to materially exceed projections to keep pace. On games where AccuScore has leaned this heavily toward the home side, that side won 97 of its last 100. For the Norse to pull off the surprise, they would need to turn this into a track meet and force Saint Louis into uncharacteristic sloppiness.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SLU | EV | NKU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -1.5% | +262 | -44.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Louis 97% to beat Northern Kentucky (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Louis the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Louis a 97% chance of beating Northern Kentucky, against 3% for Northern Kentucky. Saint Louis are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Kentucky (2-1 so far) project to finish 18.0–12.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Louis (2-0 so far) project to finish 22.8–7.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 52% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Kentucky | 18.0–12.0 | 14% | 12% |
| Saint Louis | 22.8–7.2 | 32% | 52% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northern Kentucky and Saint Louis come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northern Kentucky have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).
Saint Louis have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).