NCAAB
Fairfield
1-1
Wisconsin
2-0
Win Probability
Wisconsin hosts Fairfield in a matchup where the simulation strongly favours the Badgers. The model projects Wisconsin to pull away decisively, with Fairfield facing the challenge of containing a Wisconsin offence that figures to operate in the mid-80s. On games shaped this way across AccuScore's history, the favoured side has won 97 of 100. For Fairfield to escape Madison with a result, the visiting Badgers would need to generate significantly more offensive production than the projection and force Wisconsin into an uncharacteristic shooting night—a reversal that the 50,000 simulations suggest is unlikely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | WIS | EV | FAIR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -1.1% | +262 | -45.7% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin 98% to beat Fairfield (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Wisconsin a 98% chance of beating Fairfield, against 2% for Fairfield. Wisconsin are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Fairfield (1-1 so far) project to finish 15.9–14.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Wisconsin (2-0 so far) project to finish 18.4–12.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 61% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Fairfield and Wisconsin come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.