Georgia State
1-2
Fresno State
1-1
Win Probability
Georgia State travels to Fresno State in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the hosts. Fresno State's depth will be tested early; the model projects the Bulldogs to outscore the Panthers by roughly six points, with the game's outcome hinging on whether Georgia State can generate enough perimeter scoring to keep pace. In 2,185 games where AccuScore favored one side this decisively, that side won 68% of the time. For Georgia State to pull the upset, the Panthers would need to convert at a rate well above their season average and force Fresno State into uncharacteristic turnovers.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | FRES | EV | GAST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -582 | -9.4% | -160 | -25.1% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State 69% to beat Georgia State (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Fresno State a 69% chance of beating Georgia State, against 31% for Georgia State. Fresno State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Georgia State (0-2 so far) project to finish 11.3–17.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Fresno State (0-1 so far) project to finish 9.4–20.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia State | 11.3–17.7 | 2% | 2% |
| Fresno State | 9.4–20.6 | <1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Georgia State and Fresno State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).