NCAAB
Little Rock
0-2
New Mexico
2-0
Win Probability
New Mexico hosts Little Rock in a matchup between a pair of teams at opposite ends of the early season arc. The simulation favours the Lobos decisively, projecting them to win comfortably on their home floor. Little Rock's path to an upset runs through perimeter shooting and forcing New Mexico into turnovers; in the 50,000 simulations run, the Lobos' interior presence proved too difficult to overcome. When AccuScore has leaned this heavily toward the home side in similar spots across other games, that side won 8 of 8. For Little Rock to pull the upset, its defence would need to generate stops at a rate well above what the model projects for a 0-2 team.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UNM | EV | LR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -1.0% | +248 | -46.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | -4.9% | -105 | +0.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico 98% to beat Little Rock (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Mexico a 98% chance of beating Little Rock, against 2% for Little Rock. New Mexico are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Little Rock (0-2 so far) project to finish 11.2–18.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Mexico (2-0 so far) project to finish 24.0–7.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 61% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock | 11.2–18.8 | 7% | 6% |
| New Mexico | 24.0–7.0 | 45% | 61% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Little Rock and New Mexico come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Little Rock have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
New Mexico have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).