NCAAB
Creighton
2-0
Kansas State
1-1
Win Probability
Creighton travels to Manhattan as a slight favourite over Kansas State in a matchup between an undefeated Blue Jays side and a Wildcats team seeking its second win. The simulation leans toward the visitors, with the game projected as a one-possession affair that hinges on three-point shooting—combined scoring has only a 48% chance of surpassing the market total. In games where AccuScore has favoured a side this moderately across thousands of matchups, that side won 57% of the time. Kansas State would need to shore up perimeter defence and control the pace to pull off the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | KSU | EV | CREI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +136 | +0.5% | -162 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +134 | +0.1% | -162 | -3.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +140 | +1.4% | -165 | -4.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +135 | +0.3% | -165 | -4.1% |
| BetRivers ↗ | +140 | +1.4% | -180 | -5.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -105 | -2.9% | -115 | -1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -106 | -3.1% | -114 | -1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157 | -110 | -5.0% | -110 | +0.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 155.5 | -115 | -2.6% | -105 | -1.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 42.8%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Creighton 57% to beat Kansas State (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Creighton the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas State a 43% chance of beating Creighton, against 57% for Creighton. Kansas State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Creighton (2-0 so far) project to finish 15.1–14.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 34% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas State (1-1 so far) project to finish 12.1–17.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Creighton | 15.1–14.9 | 3% | 34% |
| Kansas State | 12.1–17.9 | <1% | 11% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Creighton and Kansas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Creighton have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Kansas State have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2018: Creighton 0, Kansas State 2. The last meeting, on Dec 13, 2025, finished Kansas State 83, Creighton 76.