NCAAB
Montana
1-1
San Francisco
2-0
Win Probability
Montana travels to San Francisco as a clear underdog in this matchup. The simulation strongly favours the Dons, who host the Grizzlies in a game that hinges on perimeter shooting: San Francisco will need to convert from three at a high rate to build the lead the model projects, while Montana's path to an upset runs through staying competitive on the boards and from distance themselves. In 781 graded games where the model leaned this decisively toward the home side, that side won 92% of the time. Among eight statistically similar games, the favoured team won seven. For the Grizzlies to pull off the road win, they would need to force San Francisco into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night while executing cleanly on offence themselves.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SF | EV | MONT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -471 | +0.7% | +222 | -23.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 146.5 | -115 | +1.2% | -105 | -5.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco 84% to beat Montana (16%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco the more likely winner at 84%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Francisco a 84% chance of beating Montana, against 16% for Montana. San Francisco are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Montana (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Francisco (2-0 so far) project to finish 18.4–12.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | 14.5–14.5 | 13% | 12% |
| San Francisco | 18.4–12.6 | 8% | 14% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Montana and San Francisco come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Francisco have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2011: Montana 0, San Francisco 3. The last meeting, on Nov 22, 2013, finished San Francisco 75, Montana 74.