NCAAB
Army
1-1
New Haven
0-2
Win Probability
Army travels to New Haven in a coin-flip matchup where AccuScore's simulation barely favours the Black Knights. Ryan Curry projects a 46% chance of exceeding 23 points, rebounds and assists, while New Haven's Teshaun Steele has a 49% chance at the same threshold—both squads lean on high-volume contributors in a game that could go either way. The deciding factor is tempo: this one stays close because neither team has shown it can consistently run away, and the projected combined score sits just under market expectations at 47% likelihood of going over. On games shaped this narrowly, the favoured side has won 57% of the time historically. New Haven would need its bench to outpace Army's depth—Kheni Briggs and Zoumana Traore stepping up where Curry and Jacen Holloway might falter.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NHVN | EV | ARMY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -118 | -5.6% | -102 | +1.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -129 | -7.3% | -120 | -2.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 133.5 | -112 | -3.5% | -108 | -1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 131.5 | -110 | +2.2% | -110 | -6.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 133.5 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 133.5 | -129 | -6.4% | -125 | -4.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Army 52% to beat New Haven (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Army the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Haven a 48% chance of beating Army, against 52% for Army. New Haven are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Army (0-1 so far) project to finish 15.1–14.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Haven (0-2 so far) project to finish 12.2–15.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Army and New Haven come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.