NCAAB
Southern
0-3
Iowa State
1-1
Win Probability
Southern travels to Hilton Coliseum to face Iowa State in a matchup the simulation favors decisively to the home side. The Cyclones project to dominate on both ends, with the gap in projected scoring—nearly 33 points—reflecting a vast gulf in execution. On a sample of similar games where the model leaned this heavily, the favored side won 97% of the time. For Southern to stay competitive, perimeter shooting would need to emerge as a strength; any road upset requires the Jaguars to generate consistent offense against a team projected to control the tempo and pace of play.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ISU | EV | SOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -20000 | +0.1% | +6000 | -43.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -115 | -2.8% | -105 | -1.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 148 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 147.5 | -135 | -6.0% | -125 | -5.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State 100% to beat Southern (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Iowa State a 100% chance of beating Southern, against 0% for Southern. Iowa State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Southern (0-3 so far) project to finish 11.8–17.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Iowa State (1-1 so far) project to finish 21.3–8.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern | 11.8–17.2 | 18% | 15% |
| Iowa State | 21.3–8.7 | 14% | 85% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Southern and Iowa State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Southern have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
Iowa State have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).