NCAAB
Houston Christian
2-0
South Dakota
1-2
Win Probability
Houston Christian travels to South Dakota as a slight underdog in a game that hinges on pace and efficiency. The simulation favours the host Coyotes, though this matchup sits in a range where the favoured side won 57% of similar spots across AccuScore's historical record. Houston Christian's balanced attack—with contributions projected across multiple scorers—will need to execute in transition, while South Dakota's ability to control tempo becomes critical to tilting possession in their favour. For Houston Christian to pull the upset, they would need to force turnovers and limit second-chance opportunities for the home side.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SDAK | EV | HCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -146 | -3.2% | +122 | -0.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -145 | -3.0% | +120 | -1.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -188 | -7.4% | -188 | -16.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156 | -110 | -6.3% | -110 | +1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 155.5 | -102 | -3.6% | -125 | -2.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Dakota 56% to beat Houston Christian (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Dakota the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Dakota a 56% chance of beating Houston Christian, against 44% for Houston Christian. South Dakota are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Houston Christian (1-0 so far) project to finish 14.4–15.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Dakota (0-2 so far) project to finish 10.2–17.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Christian | 14.4–15.6 | 4% | 4% |
| South Dakota | 10.2–17.8 | 6% | 6% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Houston Christian and South Dakota come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Houston Christian have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
South Dakota have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).