NCAAB
Belmont
2-0
Lipscomb
1-2
Win Probability
Belmont travels to Nashville to face Lipscomb in a matchup between a pair of teams separated by records but not by much else. The simulation favours the visiting Bruins, though the margin is decisive rather than commanding. Lipscomb's defence will need to contain Belmont's scoring threats; the model projects Belmont's offence to reach the low 80s while Lipscomb's stays in the high 70s. In similar spots across prior games, the favoured side has won 68% of the time. For Lipscomb to pull the upset at home, the Bisons would need to hold Belmont below its projected scoring and climb above theirs—a narrow path against a team that arrives unbeaten.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | LIP | EV | BEL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +146 | -3.1% | -178 | -1.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +150 | -2.4% | -180 | -1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -106 | -13.0% | -206 | -4.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 159.5 | -108 | -4.4% | -112 | -0.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 159.5 | -129 | -7.9% | -129 | -3.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Belmont 62% to beat Lipscomb (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Belmont the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Lipscomb a 38% chance of beating Belmont, against 62% for Belmont. Lipscomb are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Belmont (1-0 so far) project to finish 17.8–12.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Lipscomb (1-2 so far) project to finish 14.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Belmont and Lipscomb come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 3 times since 2018: Belmont 3, Lipscomb 0. The last meeting, on Nov 18, 2025, finished Lipscomb 68, Belmont 75.