Mercer
1-2
Georgia Southern
1-1
Win Probability
Mercer travels to face Georgia Southern in a matchup where the home side holds a slight advantage in the simulation. The game hinges on three-point shooting: Georgia Southern's Elijah Pennix projects to exceed 2.5 made threes with 68% probability, while Mercer's Nordmann Andoh has a 64% chance to stay under 2.5. In games where the model has favored one side this moderately, that side has won 57% of the time historically. For Mercer to pull off the upset on the road, it will need to contain Georgia Southern's perimeter scoring and convert at an efficient rate itself.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MER ML
MER +100
-4.4% EV
43.5% leads · push 4.2%
Caesars ↗
1H GASO ML
GASO -120
+0.0% EV
52.3% leads · push 4.2%
Caesars ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MER +0.5 -110
-4.5% EV
47.7% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Spread
GASO -0.5 -110
-0.1% EV
52.3% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Total
O 77.5 -115
-1.5% EV
51.9% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 77.5 -115
-5.0% EV
48.1% under
BetMGM ↗
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | GASO | EV | MER | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -115 | +3.5% | -105 | -8.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -115 | +3.5% | -102 | -7.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -118 | +2.8% | -102 | -7.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -115 | +3.5% | -105 | -8.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -115 | +3.5% | -105 | -8.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 165.5 | -105 | -5.3% | -115 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 164.5 | -115 | -4.7% | -105 | +0.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 165.5 | -105 | -5.3% | -115 | +0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 165 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 165.5 | -105 | -5.3% | -115 | +0.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 57.2%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern 57% to beat Mercer (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Georgia Southern a 57% chance of beating Mercer, against 43% for Mercer. Georgia Southern are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Mercer (0-2 so far) project to finish 13.1–16.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Georgia Southern (1-1 so far) project to finish 14.7–15.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer | 13.1–16.9 | 8% | 8% |
| Georgia Southern | 14.7–15.3 | 6% | 6% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Mercer and Georgia Southern come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Mercer have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Georgia Southern have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2018: Mercer 0, Georgia Southern 1. The last meeting, on Dec 8, 2018, finished Georgia Southern 89, Mercer 74.