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← Today's Edges
NCAAB•Thu, Nov 12 • 12:00 AM
MARQ

Marquette

2-0

VS
MICH

#20Michigan

1-1

Win Probability

Moneyline

MARQ

-299

31.2% win prob

EV -29.2%

Polymarket

Moneyline

MICH

-271

68.8% win prob

EV -2.9%

Polymarket

Analysis

Marquette travels to Michigan as a team that has started 2-0, but the simulation favours the hosting Wolverines clearly. Michigan's J.P. Estrella has a 49% chance of exceeding 26 points, rebounds and assists, while Marquette's Nolan Minessale projects at a 50% chance of surpassing 14 combined. The game likely turns on bench depth and secondary scoring: Michigan's role players project to contribute across the board, whereas Marquette depends more heavily on Royce Parham and Sananda Fru to sustain offensive output. In games where AccuScore has leaned this way toward the home team, the favoured side won 68% of its 2,188 graded matchups. Marquette would need to limit Michigan's secondary contributors and generate consistent production from multiple sources to pull the upset.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Point SpreadMICH -6.5
25.5-6.75-39
MARQ Cover
48.7%
no odds at this line
MICH Cover
51.3%
no odds at this line
Total (Over/Under)O/U 152.5
112.5156.25200
Over Cover
48.9%
no odds at this line
Under Cover
51.1%
no odds at this line

1st Half

AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.

Leads at the half

34.0%MARQ
Tied 4.2%
MICH61.8%
1st Half SpreadMICH -3
17-3-23
MARQ Cover
46.9%
no odds at this line
MICH Cover
48.5%
no odds at this line
Push 4.6% — stake returned if it lands exactly on the line
1st Half Total (Over/Under)1H O/U 72
527292
Over Cover
48.1%
no odds at this line
Under Cover
48.2%
no odds at this line
Push 3.7% — stake returned if it lands exactly on the total

Player Props

MICH MARQ
Sort:

EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.

Odds Comparison

Moneyline

BookMICHEVMARQEV
Polymarket ↗-271-2.9%-299-29.2%

Where to Bet

DraftKingsBet →FanDuelBet →BetMGMBet →KalshiBet →PolymarketBet →

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NCAAB

Marquette vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Wed, Nov 11, 2026, 7:00 PM ET

AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan 69% to beat Marquette (31%).

Projection updated Nov 10, 7:50 PM ET

Who will win Marquette vs Michigan?

AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Michigan beat Marquette?

AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan a 69% chance of beating Marquette, against 31% for Marquette. Michigan are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Every Marquette vs Michigan meeting →Marquette predictions & record →Michigan predictions & record →

Season outlook

Marquette (2-0 so far) project to finish 21.5–10.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 74% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

Michigan (1-1 so far) project to finish 22.2–7.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 94% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

TeamProjected recordConference titlePlayoffs
Marquette21.5–10.515%74%
Michigan22.2–7.820%94%

From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Marquette and Michigan come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

MarquetteWW
  • Nov 6vs Detroit MercyW 93–32
  • Nov 2vs MercyhurstW 78–43

Marquette have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).

MichiganLW
  • Nov 6at UConnL 77–85
  • Nov 2vs OaklandW 84–68

Michigan have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).