Milwaukee
1-2
Indiana State
1-1
Win Probability
Moneyline
MILW
+106
28.9% win prob
EV -20.2%
Polymarket
Moneyline
INST
-2659
71.1% win prob
EV -13.1%
Polymarket
Indiana State hosts Milwaukee in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Sycamores. Karmani Gregory projects as a 50% chance to exceed 26 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Milwaukee's Amare Hereford sits at 47% for the same threshold—a gap that reflects Indiana State's overall advantage. The game hinges on whether Milwaukee can generate enough scoring depth; Tre Norman and Danilo Jovanovich each have a 47% chance to clear 20 combined, but the Panthers' balanced attack must overcome Indiana State's depth. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 81% of the time across 1,336 graded contests. For Milwaukee to pull the upset, its three-man core of Hereford, Norman and Jovanovich would all need to hit their projection thresholds simultaneously.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | INST | EV | MILW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -2659 | -13.1% | +106 | -20.2% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana State 71% to beat Milwaukee (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana State the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Indiana State a 71% chance of beating Milwaukee, against 29% for Milwaukee. Indiana State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Milwaukee (0-2 so far) project to finish 11.2–19.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Indiana State (1-1 so far) project to finish 12.0–16.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | 11.2–19.8 | 4% | 5% |
| Indiana State | 12.0–16.0 | 4% | 5% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Milwaukee and Indiana State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Milwaukee have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Indiana State have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Milwaukee 0, Indiana State 1. The last meeting, on Dec 14, 2025, finished Indiana State 70, Milwaukee 68.