NCAAB
Valparaiso
2-0
South Dakota State
2-0
Win Probability
Valparaiso travels to South Dakota State in a matchup between undefeated teams where the simulation leans slightly toward the Crusaders. JT Pettigrew projects a 47% chance of exceeding 27 combined points, rebounds and assists, while South Dakota State's Jon Mekonnen sits at 46% for the same threshold—a tight margin that reflects how evenly matched these offenses figure to be. The game likely turns on perimeter execution; Bruno Alocen for Valparaiso and Kalen Garry for South Dakota State both project near 47-48% chances of surpassing 22 combined points, rebounds and assists, and whoever's role players step up will control tempo. AccuScore's model has won 57% of 6,715 games shaped this way. For the Jackrabbits to pull the upset at home, their depth would need to overwhelm Valparaiso's starting five across the full 40 minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SDST | EV | VAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | +110 | -1.6% | -371 | -15.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Valparaiso 54% to beat South Dakota State (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Valparaiso the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Dakota State a 46% chance of beating Valparaiso, against 54% for Valparaiso. South Dakota State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Valparaiso (2-0 so far) project to finish 16.8–12.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Dakota State (1-0 so far) project to finish 15.8–11.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valparaiso | 16.8–12.2 | 10% | 13% |
| South Dakota State | 15.8–11.2 | 25% | 20% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Valparaiso and South Dakota State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Valparaiso have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
South Dakota State have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2022: Valparaiso 0, South Dakota State 1. The last meeting, on Nov 25, 2022, finished South Dakota State 61, Valparaiso 50.