NCAAB
Santa Clara
3-0
North Texas
2-0
Win Probability
Santa Clara travels to North Texas in a matchup where the simulation barely favors the hosts. Elijah Mahi of Santa Clara has a 48% chance of exceeding 26 points, rebounds and assists, while Je'Shawn Stevenson of North Texas projects at 48% to surpass 28 in the same combined categories. The game hinges almost entirely on three-point shooting: the model's projected total sits just 0.1 points apart, and the combined score has only a 48% chance of clearing the market line. On games shaped this evenly, AccuScore's lean has been correct in 57% of 6,715 past matchups. For Santa Clara to pull off the road win, it would need to contain North Texas's secondary scorers like Cash Chavis and Reece Robinson from reaching their respective thresholds.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UNT | EV | SCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -206 | -12.6% | -393 | -18.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas 50% to beat Santa Clara (50%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas the more likely winner at 50%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Texas a 50% chance of beating Santa Clara, against 50% for Santa Clara. North Texas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Santa Clara (3-0 so far) project to finish 20.9–10.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 40% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Texas (1-0 so far) project to finish 20.6–9.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 29% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 20.9–10.1 | 22% | 40% |
| North Texas | 20.6–9.4 | 20% | 29% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Santa Clara and North Texas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Santa Clara have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Santa Clara 1, North Texas 0. The last meeting, on Dec 16, 2025, finished North Texas 60, Santa Clara 63.