Dartmouth
2-1
UAlbany
2-1
Win Probability
Moneyline
DART
-628
58.8% win prob
EV -15.9%
Polymarket
Moneyline
UALB
-332
41.2% win prob
EV -23.2%
Polymarket
Dartmouth travels to face UAlbany in a matchup between evenly matched teams each sitting at 2-1. The simulation leans toward the visiting Big Green, who project to win a close contest. UAlbany's offensive output will determine whether the home side can stay within striking distance; the gap between these teams comes down to scoring volume, with Dartmouth's attack projected to generate the decisive points. In similar games where the model has favored one side this clearly, the favored team won 57% of the time across a large sample. For UAlbany to pull the upset, the Great Danes would need to limit Dartmouth's scoring and outscore their projection by several points.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UALB | EV | DART | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -332 | -23.2% | -628 | -15.9% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Dartmouth 59% to beat UAlbany (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dartmouth the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UAlbany a 41% chance of beating Dartmouth, against 59% for Dartmouth. UAlbany are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Dartmouth (1-1 so far) project to finish 11.3–13.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UAlbany (1-1 so far) project to finish 12.0–19.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Dartmouth and UAlbany come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.