Pennsylvania
1-1
Navy
2-1
Win Probability
Pennsylvania travels to face Navy in a matchup the simulation favors decisively for the visiting Quakers. The model projects a pace that tilts toward higher scoring, with the total sitting right at the equilibrium point. On games shaped like this one—where the simulation has leaned this strongly to one side—that side has won 81% of the time across 1,336 graded contests. Navy's path to the upset runs through slowing Pennsylvania's perimeter game and forcing the Midshipmen's interior to generate enough offense in a low-possession environment. For Navy to spring the surprise, the Quakers would need an uncharacteristically poor shooting night combined with Navy's bench scoring matching or exceeding what the simulation projects.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NAVY | EV | PENN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -147 | -27.5% | -741 | -8.5% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Pennsylvania 73% to beat Navy (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Pennsylvania the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Navy a 27% chance of beating Pennsylvania, against 73% for Pennsylvania. Navy are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Pennsylvania (1-1 so far) project to finish 14.8–11.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Navy (1-1 so far) project to finish 17.7–12.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 14.8–11.2 | 20% | 17% |
| Navy | 17.7–12.3 | 22% | 18% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Pennsylvania and Navy come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Pennsylvania have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Navy have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).