NCAAB
Pepperdine
2-1
Sam Houston
1-1
Win Probability
Sam Houston hosts Pepperdine in a matchup that favours the Bearkats, though the margin is not commanding. Both teams enter with modest records, and the simulation projects a closely contested game decided by which side controls the tempo and floor spacing down the stretch. Pepperdine will need its perimeter shooting to fall consistently to keep pace; Sam Houston's ability to force turnovers and limit second-chance opportunities will be critical to closing out possessions. In games where AccuScore has leaned this way toward the home team, the favoured side won 68% of the time across a comparable sample. For the Waves to pull the upset, they would need to win the rebounding battle decisively and capitalize on Sam Houston's transition game before the Bearkats can set their defence.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SHSU | EV | PEPP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -271 | -8.9% | -285 | -23.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Sam Houston 60% to beat Pepperdine (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Sam Houston the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sam Houston a 60% chance of beating Pepperdine, against 40% for Pepperdine. Sam Houston are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Pepperdine (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.3–15.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Sam Houston (0-1 so far) project to finish 15.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pepperdine | 14.3–15.7 | 2% | 4% |
| Sam Houston | 15.2–13.8 | 21% | 19% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Pepperdine and Sam Houston come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.