NCAAB
Incarnate Word
0-3
UC Davis
1-1
Win Probability
Incarnate Word travels to UC Davis looking to improve on a winless start, but the simulation favours the hosts decisively. UC Davis has won 92 percent of games where AccuScore's model has leaned this strongly in 785 graded contests. The Aggies project to win by roughly ten points, a margin that hinges on perimeter shooting: if UC Davis's three-point volume stays high and the Incarnate Word defence cannot tighten, the home team should pull clear. For the visitors to upset, they would need to force UC Davis into a halfcourt slog and dominate the paint, reversing the spacing advantage the model expects the Aggies to build.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UCD | EV | UIW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -900 | -4.1% | +600 | +10.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -850 | -3.8% | +570 | +8.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -900 | -4.1% | +575 | +8.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -750 | -3.2% | +525 | +4.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -770 | -3.3% | +480 | +0.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -5.0% | -105 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -5.0% | -105 | +0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -5.0% | -105 | +0.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes UC Davis 83% to beat Incarnate Word (17%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UC Davis the more likely winner at 83%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UC Davis a 83% chance of beating Incarnate Word, against 17% for Incarnate Word. UC Davis are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Incarnate Word (0-3 so far) project to finish 6.9–25.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UC Davis (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.4–19.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 6.9–25.1 | <1% | 1% |
| UC Davis | 10.4–19.6 | <1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Incarnate Word and UC Davis come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Incarnate Word have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).