NCAAB
UMass Lowell
3-0
Massachusetts
1-1
Win Probability
UMass Lowell travels to Massachusetts as a 3-0 team facing a 1-1 home side, and the simulation favors the hosts decisively. The model projects a low-scoring affair where ball security becomes decisive: Massachusetts's offense will need to convert possessions efficiently, while UMass Lowell must force turnovers to stay close. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 81% of the time across 1,336 graded matchups. For the visitors to pull off the upset, their defense would have to generate stops at a rate closer to their 3-0 record than to this projection, forcing Massachusetts into enough empty possessions to erase the home advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MASS | EV | UML | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -550 | -3.0% | +410 | +2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -600 | -3.6% | +425 | +3.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -650 | -4.1% | +460 | +7.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -680 | -4.3% | +362 | -2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 147.5 | -108 | +4.4% | -112 | -8.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | +3.9% | -110 | -8.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | +3.9% | -110 | -8.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | +3.9% | -110 | -8.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 147 | -110 | +5.2% | -110 | -9.6% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Massachusetts 80% to beat UMass Lowell (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Massachusetts the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Massachusetts a 80% chance of beating UMass Lowell, against 20% for UMass Lowell. Massachusetts are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UMass Lowell (2-0 so far) project to finish 18.2–10.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Massachusetts (1-1 so far) project to finish 16.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Lowell | 18.2–10.8 | 32% | 25% |
| Massachusetts | 16.2–13.8 | 7% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UMass Lowell and Massachusetts come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UMass Lowell have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Massachusetts have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2023: UMass Lowell 0, Massachusetts 2. The last meeting, on Dec 6, 2025, finished UMass Lowell 60, Massachusetts 80.