Stephen F. Austin
2-0
Abilene Christian
1-1
Win Probability
Stephen F. Austin travels to Abilene Christian in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the visitors. The model projects a close contest decided by perimeter shooting: Abilene Christian's Reggie Miller has a 61% chance to exceed 15 points, while Stephen F. Austin's Jaylen Maddox projects to surpass 12 at 58%, and the difference between those two will likely determine the outcome. When AccuScore has leaned this strongly toward a visiting team across similar games, that side won 68% of the time. For Abilene Christian to pull the upset at home, its supporting cast will need to contain Maddox and force Miller into an inefficient night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ACU | EV | SFA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +145 | -12.5% | -175 | +4.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +145 | -12.5% | -175 | +4.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +150 | -11.8% | -180 | +4.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -120 | -21.9% | -582 | -9.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 143 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 69.4%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Stephen F. Austin 69% to beat Abilene Christian (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Stephen F. Austin the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Abilene Christian a 31% chance of beating Stephen F. Austin, against 69% for Stephen F. Austin. Abilene Christian are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Stephen F. Austin project to finish 19.6–8.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 29% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Abilene Christian (1-1 so far) project to finish 12.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen F. Austin | 19.6–8.4 | 32% | 29% |
| Abilene Christian | 12.5–15.5 | 8% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Stephen F. Austin and Abilene Christian come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Abilene Christian have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).