NCAAB
Chicago State
1-2
California Baptist
0-2
Win Probability
Chicago State travels to face California Baptist in a game where the simulation strongly favours the hosts. AccuScore projects a California Baptist victory built on offensive execution, with the Lancers needing to contain Chicago State's scoring while generating their own points efficiently. In games shaped this way—where one team held an 80–90% win probability—that favoured side won 92% of 785 graded matchups. Chicago State, winless in two games so far, would need to produce a defensive stand and limit California Baptist's efficiency to pull off an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CBU | EV | CHST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -600 | +0.4% | +440 | -13.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -630 | +0.1% | +450 | -12.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -625 | +0.1% | +450 | -12.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -575 | +0.7% | +420 | -14.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -670 | -0.4% | +430 | -14.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -9.5% | -110 | +5.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes California Baptist 86% to beat Chicago State (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes California Baptist the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives California Baptist a 86% chance of beating Chicago State, against 14% for Chicago State. California Baptist are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Chicago State (1-2 so far) project to finish 8.0–24.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
California Baptist (0-2 so far) project to finish 15.8–16.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago State | 8.0–24.0 | 3% | 6% |
| California Baptist | 15.8–16.2 | 10% | 9% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Chicago State and California Baptist come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Chicago State have won 1 of their last 3 (L-W-L, most recent first).
California Baptist have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).