NCAAB
#21USC
2-0
California
2-1
Win Probability
USC travels to Berkeley as the simulation's clear choice, with the Trojans' balanced scoring attack favoring them in a close contest. California will need to limit USC's depth—the visitors project to eclipse 84 points—while generating consistent offensive pressure themselves. The game hinges on whether California can keep pace offensively; in 2,196 past games where the model leaned this decisively toward the road team, that side won 68% of the time. For the hosts to pull the upset, they would need to hold USC below their projection and sustain the kind of three-point volume that could keep this close down the stretch.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H USC ML
USC -260
-3.8% EV
63.9% leads · push 3.9%
Caesars ↗
1H CAL ML
CAL +210
+1.9% EV
32.2% leads · push 3.9%
Caesars ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CAL | EV | USC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +285 | +7.2% | -360 | -5.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +290 | +7.9% | -385 | -5.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +290 | +7.9% | -375 | -5.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | +278 | +6.1% | -355 | -4.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +290 | +7.9% | -380 | -5.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 161.5 | -115 | +0.1% | -105 | -4.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 29.7%
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AccuScore's simulation makes USC 70% to beat California (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes USC the more likely winner at 70%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives California a 30% chance of beating USC, against 70% for USC. California are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
USC (2-0 so far) project to finish 16.6–15.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 31% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
California (1-1 so far) project to finish 13.5–17.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 16.6–15.4 | <1% | 31% |
| California | 13.5–17.5 | <1% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How USC and California come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
USC have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
California have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: USC 6, California 6. The last meeting, on Feb 6, 2024, finished USC 77, California 83.