NCAAB
Cal State Bakersfield
2-0
Western Illinois
1-2
Win Probability
Cal State Bakersfield travels to Western Illinois as the simulation's clear favourite. Bryce Cofield has a 49% chance of exceeding 28 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Kjay Bradley projects for a 47% chance beyond 25—twin offensive threats that Western Illinois will struggle to contain. The game turns on whether the Leathernecks can generate enough perimeter pressure to disrupt the Roadrunners' efficiency; Daivion Traylor sits at 46% to top 21 combined, and Hunter Vaughn at 47% to reach 17, but both need support across the lineup. In games shaped this way statistically, AccuScore's favoured side won 68 of 100. Western Illinois would need to force turnovers and control the tempo to pull the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | WIU | EV | CSUB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +205 | -2.9% | -255 | -1.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +210 | -2.1% | -260 | -2.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -215 | -27.4% | -417 | -7.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Cal State Bakersfield 69% to beat Western Illinois (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cal State Bakersfield the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Western Illinois a 31% chance of beating Cal State Bakersfield, against 69% for Cal State Bakersfield. Western Illinois are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Cal State Bakersfield (1-0 so far) project to finish 10.0–20.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Western Illinois (0-2 so far) project to finish 6.2–20.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal State Bakersfield | 10.0–20.0 | 1% | 1% |
| Western Illinois | 6.2–20.8 | 1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Cal State Bakersfield and Western Illinois come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cal State Bakersfield have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
Western Illinois have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Cal State Bakersfield 1, Western Illinois 0. The last meeting, on Nov 10, 2025, finished Western Illinois 58, Cal State Bakersfield 74.