Niagara
0-2
Bowling Green
2-0
Win Probability
Bowling Green hosts Niagara in a matchup that AccuScore's simulation decisively favours the Falcons. Josiah Shackelford has a 45% chance of topping 28 points, rebounds and assists, while Bastien Rieber of the visiting Purple Eagles projects a 50% chance of exceeding 17 combined points, rebounds and assists—a meaningful gap that speaks to Bowling Green's advantage. The game turns on whether Niagara can generate enough offensive creation; in 607 similarly shaped contests, AccuScore's favoured side won 97% of the time. For the Purple Eagles to pull the upset, their perimeter creation would need to significantly outpace projections.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BGSU | EV | NIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -1600 | -2.2% | +860 | -2.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1400 | -1.8% | +850 | -2.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2659 | -3.3% | +168 | -36.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 146.5 | -115 | -2.6% | -105 | -1.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 148 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.5% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Bowling Green 90% to beat Niagara (10%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Bowling Green the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Bowling Green a 90% chance of beating Niagara, against 10% for Niagara. Bowling Green are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Niagara (0-2 so far) project to finish 8.5–21.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Bowling Green (2-0 so far) project to finish 16.9–12.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara | 8.5–21.5 | 1% | 1% |
| Bowling Green | 16.9–12.1 | 9% | 9% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Niagara and Bowling Green come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Niagara have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Bowling Green have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).