NCAAB
Loyola Marymount
1-2
South Alabama
1-2
Win Probability
This matchup between Loyola Marymount and South Alabama shapes as a coin-flip, with the simulation barely favouring the hosts. The game will likely turn on perimeter scoring: Zion Sensley has a 46% chance of exceeding 23 combined points, rebounds and assists for the visiting Lions, while Jalen Langsy sits at 50% for South Alabama. In games with win probabilities this close, AccuScore's pick has won 57% of the time across its historical record. For Loyola Marymount to pull the upset on the road, it would need to limit Diego Roman, who has a 49% chance of surpassing 19 combined stats, while getting multiple contributors into double figures in efficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | USA | EV | LMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -114 | +0.6% | -105 | -5.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -110 | +1.5% | -110 | -6.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -135 | -3.1% | -160 | -12.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 142.5 | -106 | +2.7% | -114 | -7.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 143.5 | -115 | -1.4% | -105 | -3.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | +1.7% | -110 | -6.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 53.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama 54% to beat Loyola Marymount (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Alabama a 54% chance of beating Loyola Marymount, against 46% for Loyola Marymount. South Alabama are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Loyola Marymount (0-2 so far) project to finish 12.8–18.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Alabama (1-2 so far) project to finish 15.4–13.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loyola Marymount | 12.8–18.2 | 2% | 3% |
| South Alabama | 15.4–13.6 | 10% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Loyola Marymount and South Alabama come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Loyola Marymount have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
South Alabama have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).