NCAAB
Richmond
3-0
Southern Illinois
1-1
Win Probability
Richmond travels to Southern Illinois as the simulation's clear choice. The Spiders' undefeated record and balanced scoring attack—Derin Saran projects to exceed 21 combined points, rebounds and assists in 45% of outcomes, while Aiden Argabright clears 19 in the same proportion—give them the edge in a contest likely decided by depth. Southern Illinois will lean heavily on Jalen Haynes, who has a 46% chance of reaching 28 combined, but the Salukis' supporting cast must keep pace. In games where the model favours one side this decisively, that side won 57% of the time historically. The hosts stay in contention if Donovan Hill and Damien Mayo Jr. both exceed their 22- and 21-combined benchmarks and keep the game tight through the closing minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SIU | EV | RICH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +158 | +3.9% | -192 | -5.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +155 | +3.3% | -190 | -5.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +120 | -4.0% | -2105 | -19.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -8.6% | -110 | +4.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -105 | -12.3% | -115 | +7.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -8.6% | -110 | +4.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 41.8%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Richmond 58% to beat Southern Illinois (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Richmond the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Southern Illinois a 42% chance of beating Richmond, against 58% for Richmond. Southern Illinois are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Richmond (2-0 so far) project to finish 18.7–12.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Southern Illinois (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 18.7–12.3 | 6% | 17% |
| Southern Illinois | 14.4–14.6 | 8% | 9% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Richmond and Southern Illinois come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Richmond have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Southern Illinois have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Richmond 1, Southern Illinois 0. The last meeting, on Dec 13, 2025, finished Southern Illinois 84, Richmond 93.