NCAAB
Montana State
1-1
#23BYU
3-0
Win Probability
Montana State travels to face BYU in a matchup the simulation decisively favors the hosts. Robert Wright III leads BYU's scoring potential with a 49% chance at exceeding 28 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Tyler Betsey has a 47% chance of surpassing 20. For the visitors, Jed Miller projects at 50% to exceed 19 combined, but Montana State's depth falls short of BYU's firepower across the board. AccuScore's model has won 97% of 607 games shaped this way, a margin the Cougars would need to maintain by controlling the glass and limiting Montana State's transition opportunities.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BYU | EV | MTST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -7000 | -1.4% | +2000 | -5.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -5000 | -1.1% | +2000 | -5.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -0.8% | +271 | -42.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 163.5 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 163.5 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 163.5 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes BYU 96% to beat Montana State (4%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes BYU the more likely winner at 96%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives BYU a 96% chance of beating Montana State, against 4% for Montana State. BYU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Montana State (1-1 so far) project to finish 15.7–13.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
BYU (3-0 so far) project to finish 20.8–9.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 78% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State | 15.7–13.3 | 18% | 15% |
| BYU | 20.8–9.2 | 7% | 78% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Montana State and BYU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Montana State have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
BYU have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).