NCAAB
New Mexico State
1-1
UTEP
1-1
Win Probability
New Mexico State travels to UTEP in a matchup where the simulation leans toward the hosts. Mark Lavrenov has a 50% chance of exceeding 24 combined points, rebounds and assists for the Aggies, while UTEP's Reese Miller projects at 47% to surpass 26 in the same category. The game hinges on scoring depth: New Mexico State has six players with at least a 46% chance of reaching their production thresholds, compared to four for UTEP. AccuScore's model favored similar matchups 57% of the time across 6,723 graded games. The Miners would need to limit the Aggies' role players while getting secondary scoring from Leif Moeller and Augusto Cassiá.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UTEP | EV | NMSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -152 | +3.4% | +126 | -9.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -155 | +3.0% | +130 | -9.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1274 | -15.3% | +110 | -12.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -115 | -1.8% | -105 | -2.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 64.4%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes UTEP 64% to beat New Mexico State (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UTEP the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UTEP a 64% chance of beating New Mexico State, against 36% for New Mexico State. UTEP are at home and favoured on these numbers.
New Mexico State (0-1 so far) project to finish 9.7–18.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UTEP (1-1 so far) project to finish 11.2–15.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State | 9.7–18.3 | 3% | 3% |
| UTEP | 11.2–15.8 | 1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How New Mexico State and UTEP come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New Mexico State have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
UTEP have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2022: New Mexico State 2, UTEP 3. The last meeting, on Feb 20, 2026, finished UTEP 63, New Mexico State 67.