NCAAB
UC Riverside
2-0
San José State
1-1
Win Probability
San José State hosts UC Riverside in a game where the simulation favours the Spartans decisively. Devon Malcolm of UC Riverside has a 49% chance of exceeding 25 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Joey Chammaa of San José State sits at 46% for the same threshold—a marginal separation that belies the home side's advantage. The game turns on San José State's depth: the Spartans project contributions across seven players with meaningful probability, whereas UC Riverside leans more heavily on its top five. Across similar win-probability shapes in other matchups, AccuScore's favoured side won 81% of the time. UC Riverside would need to reverse that pattern and neutralise San José State's multiple scoring threats to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SJSU | EV | UCR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -300 | -2.7% | +240 | -0.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -320 | -3.5% | +250 | +0.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -812 | -10.2% | -125 | -23.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | +1.2% | -105 | -5.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 154 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 29.1%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes San José State 71% to beat UC Riverside (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San José State the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San José State a 71% chance of beating UC Riverside, against 29% for UC Riverside. San José State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UC Riverside (1-0 so far) project to finish 14.9–15.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San José State (1-1 so far) project to finish 12.0–18.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Riverside | 14.9–15.1 | 8% | 7% |
| San José State | 12.0–18.0 | 1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UC Riverside and San José State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San José State have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).