NCAAB
Southern
0-4
Minnesota
3-0
Win Probability
Southern visits Minnesota with the Golden Gophers favored decisively. AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota a 98% win probability, projecting a 24-point margin that hinges on whether Southern can generate enough offensive pressure to stay close. The game turns on Southern's ability to score; the model projects them at 58 points, well below what typically keeps a visitor competitive. On games shaped this strongly in AccuScore's past, the favored side won 97% of the time across 607 graded matchups. For Southern to pull the upset, the Golden Gophers would need to fall well short of their projected 81.7 points while Southern exceeded its offensive projection substantially.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MINN | EV | SOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -20000 | -0.9% | +3500 | -8.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -15000 | -0.8% | +4500 | +2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 140 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.7% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota 98% to beat Southern (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota a 98% chance of beating Southern, against 2% for Southern. Minnesota are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Southern (0-4 so far) project to finish 11.8–17.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Minnesota (3-0 so far) project to finish 18.3–13.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 43% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Southern and Minnesota come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.