Pittsburgh
3-0
Butler
2-1
Win Probability
Pittsburgh travels to Butler in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. The Bulldogs project to a narrow victory, with the outcome hinging on whether Pittsburgh can keep pace in a low-scoring affair; AccuScore's model leans decisively toward Butler. On games shaped this way—where the favored side carries a strong but not overwhelming lean—the model's choice has won 57% of the time across 6,732 graded games. For Pittsburgh's upset case to materialize, the Panthers would need either team to break trend and push the combined score significantly higher than the projection suggests, a scenario the simulation rates at just 48%.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BTLR | EV | PITT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -154 | -0.8% | +128 | -4.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -155 | -0.9% | +130 | -3.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -172 | -2.8% | -110 | -11.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -6.3% | -110 | +1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 158.5 | -105 | -9.8% | -115 | +5.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 157 | -105 | -6.5% | -115 | +2.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 155.5 | -188 | -12.9% | -197 | -11.1% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Butler 60% to beat Pittsburgh (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Butler the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Butler a 60% chance of beating Pittsburgh, against 40% for Pittsburgh. Butler are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Pittsburgh (3-0 so far) project to finish 17.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 28% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Butler (2-1 so far) project to finish 15.8–16.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | 17.6–14.4 | 1% | 28% |
| Butler | 15.8–16.2 | 1% | 24% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Pittsburgh and Butler come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Pittsburgh have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
Butler have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2012: Pittsburgh 1, Butler 0. The last meeting, on Mar 21, 2012, finished Pittsburgh 68, Butler 62.