NCAAB
#6Virginia
4-0
Maryland
1-1
Win Probability
Virginia travels to College Park as a clear favourite over Maryland in a matchup between the unbeaten Cavaliers and the Terrapins. The simulation leans decisively toward the visitors, projecting a low-scoring affair that hinges on whether Maryland can generate enough perimeter shooting to keep pace. Virginia's offensive balance has been central to its start, while Maryland's ability to execute at volume will determine whether this stays competitive in the closing minutes. On games shaped similarly to this one, the favoured side has won 68% of the time across AccuScore's record. Maryland would need to force Virginia into uncharacteristic shooting struggles and capitalize on home possessions to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MD | EV | UVA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +190 | -2.3% | -235 | -2.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +190 | -2.3% | -235 | -2.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +115 | -14.6% | -225 | -1.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -9.6% | -110 | +5.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 153 | -105 | -5.1% | -115 | +0.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 152.5 | -5429 | -25.9% | -5429 | -23.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia 67% to beat Maryland (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Maryland a 33% chance of beating Virginia, against 67% for Virginia. Maryland are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Virginia (4-0 so far) project to finish 22.9–8.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 86% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Maryland (1-1 so far) project to finish 13.1–16.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Virginia and Maryland come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 8 times since 2012: Virginia 7, Maryland 1. The last meeting, on Dec 20, 2025, finished Maryland 72, Virginia 80.