Xavier
3-0
Mississippi State
3-0
Win Probability
Xavier travels to Mississippi State with both teams unbeaten, and the simulation slightly favors the Musketeers in a matchup that could turn on perimeter scoring. Xavier's Zach Freemantle projects to exceed 14.5 points in 64% of outcomes, while Mississippi State's Jaylen Murray clears 12.5 points in 58% of simulations—a gap that reflects where the model sees the decisive scoring. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 57% of the time across 6,732 graded matchups. For Mississippi State to pull the upset at home, the Bulldogs would need to limit Xavier's offensive efficiency and lean on their own depth beyond Murray's projected contribution.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MSST | EV | XAV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +122 | -1.0% | -146 | -2.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +120 | -1.5% | -145 | -2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -197 | -16.8% | -152 | -3.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 164.5 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -2.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 164.5 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -2.1% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Xavier 56% to beat Mississippi State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Xavier the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Mississippi State a 44% chance of beating Xavier, against 56% for Xavier. Mississippi State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Xavier (3-0 so far) project to finish 19.1–12.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 49% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Mississippi State (3-0 so far) project to finish 16.2–14.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 37% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | 19.1–12.9 | 5% | 49% |
| Mississippi State | 16.2–14.8 | 1% | 37% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Xavier and Mississippi State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Xavier have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Mississippi State have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).