NCAAB
North Alabama
2-1
#17Miami
2-1
Win Probability
North Alabama travels to Miami for a matchup that the simulation decisively favors the home team. The Hurricanes project to pull away late, with Miami's offense expected to dominate the pace; the model forecasts a 31-point margin built on Miami's ability to extend possessions and convert efficiently. For North Alabama to stay competitive, the Lions would need to force turnovers and limit Miami's transition opportunities—a reversal of how these teams have performed so far. In games where AccuScore's lean has been this strong across 8 comparable matchups, the favored side won 7. North Alabama's path to an upset runs through slowing the game and winning the turnover battle decisively.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MIA | EV | UNA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | +0.2% | +3300 | -41.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.2% | +7000 | -32.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 148.5 | -108 | -3.3% | -112 | -1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 148.5 | -471 | -20.6% | -316 | -16.1% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Miami 100% to beat North Alabama (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami a 100% chance of beating North Alabama, against 1% for North Alabama. Miami are at home and favoured on these numbers.
North Alabama (1-1 so far) project to finish 9.6–18.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Miami (2-1 so far) project to finish 19.3–10.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 53% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Alabama | 9.6–18.4 | 3% | 3% |
| Miami | 19.3–10.7 | 4% | 53% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How North Alabama and Miami come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Alabama have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
Miami have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).