App State
2-1
Charlotte
2-1
Win Probability
App State travels to Charlotte in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Mountaineers project to 63.8 points against a Charlotte team expected to reach 70.6, with the deciding factor whether App State can generate enough offensive output to stay competitive. On games shaped this way—where the model's preference ran 70–80% strong—that favored side won 81% of the time across 1,351 graded contests. For App State to pull off the upset, the Mountaineers would need their scoring to exceed the projection substantially while holding Charlotte below its expected total.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CLT | EV | APP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -455 | -5.1% | +350 | +9.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -465 | -5.3% | +350 | +9.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -450 | -5.0% | +340 | +8.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -455 | -5.1% | +345 | +8.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -475 | -5.5% | +360 | +10.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 133.5 | -105 | -0.3% | -115 | -4.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 133.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 133.5 | -105 | -0.3% | -115 | -4.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 133.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 133.5 | -105 | -0.3% | -115 | -4.1% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Charlotte 74% to beat App State (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Charlotte the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Charlotte a 74% chance of beating App State, against 26% for App State. Charlotte are at home and favoured on these numbers.
App State (1-1 so far) project to finish 17.8–11.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Charlotte (2-1 so far) project to finish 15.6–15.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How App State and Charlotte come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.