NCAAB
Iona
2-2
Hofstra
1-2
Win Probability
Iona travels to face Hofstra in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the hosts. The model leans heavily toward Hofstra, which has won 81% of games shaped this way across AccuScore's historical record. Iona's scoring will be critical; the Gaels project to fall short of 66 points, a mark they will exceed in roughly half their attempts. Hofstra's ability to stay efficient on its home court will likely determine the outcome, though Iona could pull the upset if it can force the pace and limit the hosts' scoring to well below 74.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | HOF | EV | IONA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -285 | +0.4% | +230 | -8.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -275 | +0.9% | +220 | -9.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -278 | +0.7% | +222 | -9.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -280 | +0.6% | +225 | -8.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -371 | -2.6% | +135 | -20.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 138.5 | -105 | +0.5% | -115 | -4.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 138.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 138.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 137.5 | -115 | +0.8% | -105 | -5.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 138.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 74.6%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Hofstra 75% to beat Iona (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Hofstra the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Hofstra a 75% chance of beating Iona, against 25% for Iona. Hofstra are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Iona (2-2 so far) project to finish 17.1–14.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Hofstra (0-2 so far) project to finish 17.7–12.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Iona and Hofstra come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 4 times since 2011: Iona 1, Hofstra 3. The last meeting, on Nov 6, 2025, finished Hofstra 73, Iona 81.