NCAAB
Mount St. Mary's
1-1
Virginia Tech
3-0
Win Probability
Virginia Tech hosts Mount St. Mary's in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Hokies. The game turns on perimeter shooting: Virginia Tech's guard projects to exceed 20 points with 73% probability, while Mount St. Mary's forward sits at just a 31% chance to reach double figures. In 621 similar games where the model leaned this heavily toward the home side, that side won 97% of the time. For Mount St. Mary's to pull the upset, their perimeter attack would need to overcome a significant scoring deficit and force Virginia Tech into an uncharacteristic shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | VT | EV | MSM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -28.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -28.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
| Book | VT | EV | MSM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -0.2% | +3000 | -28.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.6% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia Tech 99% to beat Mount St. Mary's (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia Tech the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Virginia Tech a 99% chance of beating Mount St. Mary's, against 1% for Mount St. Mary's. Virginia Tech are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Mount St. Mary's (1-1 so far) project to finish 14.2–15.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Virginia Tech (3-0 so far) project to finish 21.2–10.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 55% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mount St. Mary's | 14.2–15.8 | 7% | 5% |
| Virginia Tech | 21.2–10.8 | 5% | 55% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Mount St. Mary's and Virginia Tech come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Mount St. Mary's have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Virginia Tech have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).