Sam Houston
2-1
#3Illinois
2-1
Win Probability
Sam Houston travels to face Illinois in a clash between two teams with identical 2-1 records. The simulation decisively favors the Illini at home. Illinois's depth will be tested early: the model projects Ty Rodgers to exceed 13.5 points with 63% probability, while Sam Houston's Javon Bennett clears 11.5 points in only 38% of outcomes. The game turns on whether Sam Houston can generate enough perimeter shooting to stay close; across eight similar matchups where the model leaned this heavily one direction, the favored side won 7 times. For the Bearkats to pull the upset, their role players must shoot above their season efficiency and force Illinois into early foul trouble.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ILL | EV | SHSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.1% | +9000 | -31.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 170.5 | -115 | -7.4% | -105 | +3.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 169.5 | -110 | -4.2% | -110 | -0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 170.5 | -115 | -7.4% | -105 | +3.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 170 | -110 | -5.3% | -110 | +0.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 169.5 | -443 | -20.6% | -299 | -15.3% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Illinois 100% to beat Sam Houston (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Illinois the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Illinois a 100% chance of beating Sam Houston, against 0% for Sam Houston. Illinois are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Sam Houston (1-1 so far) project to finish 15.9–13.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Illinois (2-1 so far) project to finish 25.1–6.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 98% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 15.9–13.1 | 24% | 20% |
| Illinois | 25.1–6.9 | 30% | 98% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Sam Houston and Illinois come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Sam Houston have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Illinois have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).