Northern Iowa
2-1
#5Michigan State
3-0
Win Probability
Northern Iowa travels to face Michigan State in a game where the simulation decisively favours the Spartans. AccuScore projects a 28-point margin, with MSU's depth and offensive firepower expected to overwhelm a visiting team that has won just twice. The outcome hinges on Northern Iowa's ability to generate three-point shooting; if the Panthers can stay within range from distance, they gain a foothold. Across similar statistical matchups, AccuScore's favoured side has won 97 percent of the time. For UNI to pull the upset, they would need Michigan State to have an uncharacteristically poor shooting night at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MSU | EV | UNI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -100000 | -0.6% | +5000 | -19.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -0.1% | +3500 | -28.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -36823 | -0.5% | -106 | -48.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan State 99% to beat Northern Iowa (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan State the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan State a 99% chance of beating Northern Iowa, against 1% for Northern Iowa. Michigan State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Iowa (1-1 so far) project to finish 16.0–14.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Michigan State (3-0 so far) project to finish 24.8–7.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 96% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | 16.0–14.0 | 14% | 16% |
| Michigan State | 24.8–7.2 | 17% | 96% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northern Iowa and Michigan State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Michigan State have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).